Is It a Coup?

A coup d'état is the forcible removal of an existing government from power through illegal and unconstitutional means. The goal is to seize power for oneself or a select group's engrichment, not to destroy the system.

Overall Coup Likelihood:
35%

Constitutional Order

Action Example Status
Attempts to bypass constitutional processes Ending Birthright Citizenship Yes
Interference with peaceful transfer of power [Citation needed] No
Unauthorized changes to constitutional interpretation [Citation needed] Maybe
Suspension of constitutional rights [Citation needed] Yes
Attempts to alter term limits or election timing [Citation needed] Maybe
Bypassing legislative oversight [Citation needed] No
Unauthorized expansion of executive powers [Citation needed] Maybe
Interference with judicial independence [Citation needed] No
Manipulation of constitutional amendment processes [Citation needed] Maybe
Violation of separation of powers [Citation needed] No

Democratic Institutions

Action Example Status
Undermining election integrity [Citation needed] Maybe
Attempts to delegitimize democratic processes [Citation needed] Yes
Suppression of opposition parties [Citation needed] Yes
Interference with free press [Citation needed] Yes
Manipulation of voter registration systems [Citation needed] No
Intimidation of election officials [Citation needed] Maybe
Restriction of public assembly rights [Citation needed] Maybe
Interference with independent election monitoring [Citation needed] Maybe
Manipulation of electoral districts [Citation needed] Maybe
Attacks on civil society organizations [Citation needed] Maybe

Rule of Law

Action Example Status
Refusal to comply with legal orders [Citation needed] No
Abuse of emergency powers [Citation needed] No
Politically motivated prosecutions [Citation needed] No
Interference with law enforcement independence [Citation needed] No
Selective enforcement of laws [Citation needed] No
Intimidation of legal professionals [Citation needed] No
Obstruction of justice [Citation needed] Yes
Undermining judicial decisions [Citation needed] Yes
Creation of parallel legal structures [Citation needed] No
Abuse of pardoning powers [Citation needed] No

Military Involvement

Action Example Status
Military leaders publicly questioning civilian authority [Citation needed] Maybe
Military units moving without civilian authorization [Citation needed] No
Unauthorized military presence in civilian areas [Citation needed] No
Military interference in civilian politics [Citation needed] Maybe
Deployment of military for domestic law enforcement [Citation needed] Maybe
Military control of communication infrastructure [Citation needed] No
Military leaders making political statements [Citation needed] No
Unauthorized military surveillance of civilians [Citation needed] No
Military blocking access to government buildings [Citation needed] Maybe
Military coordination with political factions [Citation needed] No